The Death of the Knuckle-ball

When Tim Wakefield retired this past week, he took the knuckle ball with him.

Yeah, Tim Wakefield wasn’t very good in his final seasons with the Red Sox as evidenced by his 11-18 record, 5.23 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and 44 home runs allowed since 2010. He’d be a plug-in starter every 2-3 weeks, giving Beckett or Lester an extra day of rest. Nobody bought a Red Sox ticket and thought:

“Sweet! Wakefield’s on the mound!”

He couldn’t sneak his 77 mph fastball past a high school JV player, he was fairly predictable, he never showed emotion, he happens to be a part of one of the most dreadful moments in Red Sox history (Aaron Boone’s walk-off home run), and you could never watch a Wakefield at-bat without thinking ‘Golly, if A-Rod connects on that ball it’s never coming back.’

All of these things are true. It was time for Timmy to go. But Red Sox Nation will never forget Wakefield.

We were with him after he lost Game Seven of the 2003 ALCS. We watched his knuckle-ball get belted over so many fences. We watched Doug Mirabelli scamper after countless passed balls because he, like everyone else, had no idea where the knuckle-ball was going to land. We watched him flounder for seven starts without recording that elusive 200th victory. He got it, and we were there. We were loyal to Wakefield because he was loyal to us.

And the knuckle-ball. Today, pitchers are evaluated in high school. If they can blow fastballs past 17 year olds – who are more worried about handing in chemistry homework than that particular at-bat -  they have ‘potential’. They later develop a change up, a curveball, and probably another off speed pitch. Tim Wakefield did things the other way. He lulled you to sleep with his soft, fluttery, dead-spin pitch. He didn’t rely on sheer power and speed off his pitch, he relied on ground balls, fly outs, his defense, and the occasional swing-and-a-miss strikeout in which the batter can’t believe how he whiffed at such a meatball.

Tim Wakefield isn’t a hall of famer. Hell, many people outside of New England probably don’t know much about him. He’s that guy who throws the knuckle, right? To Red Sox fans, Wakefield was more than that. We loved him. Him retiring signals the end of a chapter in Sox history.

And the death of the knuckle ball.

 

Superbowl Picks

Happy days, everyone!

Giants-Patriots. A rematch of 2007. Brady vs Eli. Brady vs his own legacy. Eli vs his older brothers legacy. Belichick vs Coughlin. Pass Rush vs Pass Game. The Spirit of Myra Kraft vs. The forces of Evil. So many underlying themes and juicy  story lines.

But hey, there’s still a football game to be played. No matter what the talking heads in Bristol, Connecticut try to tell you.

Here are things we know about Sundays game:

1: Somebody will win, somebody will lose.

2: There will be about three quality commercials and about fourteen-fifteen absolute flops.

3: Madonna will be a disappointing halftime show.

4: Rob Gronkowski, if he plays, will NOT be 100%.

5: Tom Brady is a better quarterback than Eli Manning

6: Bill Belichick is a better coach than Tom Coughlin

7: The Giants have more talented defensive players than the Patriots

8: The game is being played in Indianapolis – which does NOT favor New England.

9: Lots of people will be watching the game.

10: Whoever scores more points wins.

Other than that, who knows? Everyone wants to talk about the Giants pass rush versus the New England offensive line. The ‘football experts’, as they fondly call themselves, predict that New England will win the game if Tom Brady has time to sit in the pocket, make his reads, and throw the ball. 

No, shit. Really?

If you gave, like, 24 of the quarterbacks in the NFL time to throw- they are going to beat you. If Tom Brady gets to lounge in the pocket all day OF COURSE New England’s offense will be successful! Isn’t it easier to complete passes if you aren’t running for your life with Jason Pierre-Paul in hot pursuit?

They also say things like If the Giants can control the ball, eat clock, and get the ball out of Tom Brady’s hands, they will win the game. Once again, thank you very much for this breaking news. If the Giants win the games within the game – turnovers, time of possession, etc – they will probably be successful. That’s not news. Belichick knows it. Coughlin knows it. That applies to every football game ever played. If the Giants were playing the Alabama Crimson Tide and ‘Bama controlled the ball, ate clock, and didn’t let Manning have any good looks then ‘Bama would win! It’s football.

I’ve gotta make a prediction for this game, well, because everyone else is doing it. I see this game being close, down-to-the-wire, nail biting, intense… basically everything a Super Bowl should be. These two teams are the last standing after a long and violent NFL season. Neither team will give any ground. Both the Giants and the Patriots have had an extra week to prepare for each other. This will result in a low scoring game, because both defenses will be well prepared.

The pick: 24-21 New England

Myra Kraft prevails.

I hope everyone has an awesome Superbowl Sunday!

Man of the Hour: Kobe Bryant

Kobe Bryant is 33 years old. He has played over 40,000 minutes in his NBA career. That’s 16 seasons of hard drives to the rim, fall away jumpers, and tenacious defense. He’s accumulated a grand total of 21,578 field goal attempts, and almost as many minor knee, ankle, and wrist surgeries. In theory, Kobe Bryant is at the end of a spectacular NBA career.

Kobe Bryant defies such theories.

Despite a balky wrist and a recently operated on knee, Kobe Bryant is averaging 28 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists in this young NBA season. If this torrid rate continues, these would be amongst the best overall numbers of Bryant’s career. So, what gives?

There has been much talk recently about Kobe’s high volume of shots, with naysayers claiming that Kobe is playing angry and trying to prove a point to his critics – to the chagrin of his teammates. His usage rate is the highest of any player in NBA history, and he’s had six games this year in which he’s attempted more than 23 field goals. Yikes.

But Kobe is also shooting at an incredibly high clip for a perimeter player. Take away his two rough outings vs. Denver (a combined 12-46) and he’s connected on 79 of 162 shots (49%). Also, Bryant has averaged 5.8 assists per game, his highest amount since 2004.

I attribute Kobe’s early statistically explosion to Mike Brown. In Phil Jackson’s system, Kobe did not have the ball in his hands nearly as often as he does now, and when his point primarily came due to the flow of the triangle offense. Also, Phil Jackson limited Kobe to playing 33.9 minutes per night, whereas Brown has given his star a bit more freedom- 36.0 so far this season. Don’t forget about the departure of Lamar Odom, who averaged around 10 points per game for the Lakers during his tenure. Odom was never afraid to shoot the rock, even when Kobe was calling for the ball. Steve Blake and Devin Ebanks may be a little more apprehensive.

In Mike Brown’s offense, Kobe finds himself catching the ball in his scoring spots. On the blocks (Brown calls this the “Karl Malone spots”) , on the elbows, and at the top of the key. This is where Kobe feels most comfortable and is most effective. He is rarely in screen and roll situations where he can be easily double teamed. He doesn’t see as many isolations on the wing where he can be the victim of his own aggression to score and help side defenders. He also is organically discouraged to shoot three point jump shots due to his role in the offense, although he’s still finding a way to jack over 4 per night. Kobe is not having to fight for catches and when he has the ball, he is usually only opposed with one defender. This is where he can use his incredible skill set to score or get to the free throw line (8 attempts per game).

Kobe needs a lot of points (about 10,000) to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the NBA’s all time leading scorer. Why can’t he do it? Michael Jordan averaged 20 points per game as a 39 year old for the Washington Wizards. That’s six more seasons for Kobe! Assuming he plays 75 games a year (a conservative guesstimate) for the next six seasons, averaging 23 points (again, a low number) he would finish his career with 38,750 points- the most in NBA history.

NFL Playoff Picks

Hello Sports Junkies!

It’s about 9:34 PM on a frigid winter night in Maine. What is a guy to do?

Write a preview of the first round of the NFL playoffs! That’s what!

Below are my picks and a brief analysis of each matchup. I guarantee I will go 4-0 or your money back.

 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans- As little faith as I have in Andy Dalton (fine, the “Red Rifle”), I have even less faith in TJ Yates. I mean, 3 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 5 fumbles in five full starts this year? The Texans can run the ball and rush the passer, but I like the Bengals- who went 9-7 in the best division in football. The pick? 20-17 CIN

Detroit @ New Orleans- This game has the makings of a shootout (Saints: 334 passings yards per game, Lions: 301 passing yards per game), so I’ll take the Saints, mostly because the Detroit defense is ranked 22nd in the league in pass defense. I have to thank Calvin Johnson, though, for a good season in fantasy (90 catches, 1600+ yards, 16 touchdowns). By the way, this is the very first game in NFL history pitting two 5,000 yard throwers against one another. The pick? 35-27 NO

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants- I really like this Giants team. Eli Manning has two very dangerous weapons in Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. If they get a quick lead, watch out – because their pass rush is formidable. I see Matt Ryan pulling a 17-28, 210 yards, a touchdown, an interception, and a lost fumble. It’d be very tempting to get into a gunfight with the Giants, but that’s the wrong move. If Atlanta has a chance to win this game, it’s if they pound the rock with Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers and sit behind that stone wall run defense (6th best in the NFL). The pick? 32-24 NYG

Pittsburgh @ Denver- The dumbest rule in the NFL- the 12-4 Steelers (who played Baltimore and Cinncy twice apiece) have to travel to Denver to play the 8-8 Broncos. Ryan Clark won’t be present for the game due to a dangerous blood disease, but I still like the Steelers. Don’t forget, however, that Denver is capable of hanging around in this game. And we all know that Tebow is invincible in the fourth quarter. Wait, what did you say? He’s not anymore? That stopped? Huh. The pick? 28-16 PIT

Basketball is in full swing and the NFL playoffs are about to commence. It’s good to be a sports fan right about now!

 

NBA Thoughts

Take a deep breath.

Did we just see the most NBA action ever, all packed into six crazy days? Did the NBA really eclipse the NFL for the #1 sporting attraction, even during the most important weeks of the NFL season were unfolding? Is LeBron James mercilessly wreaking havoc upon the NBA? Yes.

The GraySportsGuy has had a relaxing vacation. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to provide you with much content. Until now. Please, sit back and enjoy some scattered NBA thoughts.. starting with:

* LeBron James. Damn. Through four games this season James is averaging 33 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. He’s shooting 60% from the field and 83% from the line. He has cut his turnovers and three point attempts. His efficiency rating is 40.30. Somewhere, John Hollinger is cackling. Meanwhile, his accomplice, D-Wade, is averaging 19.8, 6 dimes, and 3 rebounds.

I think what bothered us the most about James last season was that he never really wanted to dominate. He wanted to play well, but he didn’t want to step on any toes. When you have Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on your team- you can get away with this. But what the common fan saw was that the best player since Michael Jordan being satisfied with playing second fiddle to an inferior player. We knew he could put up ludicrous numbers, but we wanted to see it.

The Heat are playing so well, it’s scary. Chris Bosh looks confident (17, 8, 1.3 blocks + a couple of monster dunks), Wade and James are doing their thing, and the supporting cast is acceptable. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go something like 55-11. And also, on the TNT half-time show, Shaquille O’Neal claimed that the Miami big three was James, Wade, and Udonis Haslem- an obvious Bosh diss. Hey, big fella, Chris Bosh is a seven time all star with career averages of 20 and 9. Haslem has career averages of 10 points, 8 rebounds, and has yet to get an All Star nod. Easy on the slights, Shaq. Look out for the Miami Heat.

* The defending NBA champions are 1-3. The Mavericks beat the Raptors last night despite 30 points from Andrea Bargnani. What’s wrong with the Cubanites? I have no idea. Lamar Odom has been dreadful (trust me, he’s on my fantasy team), and the Mavs are getting pounded on the boards. Plus, their best defender, Shaun Marion has been injured. So that leaves Dirk Nowtizki and Jason Kidd on the floor to defend. Needless to say, the Mavs are 28th in the NBA in points allowed. Am I worried? Not exactly. But this could be a little case of the championship hangovers. Remember: the Mavs let Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, and J.J Barea go in free agency. Stay tuned.

* The Thunder are 4-0, but not without some drama. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have been engaged in well publicized arguments. Westbrook needs to realize something- it’s not 1A and 1B in OKC, it’s Durant’s franchise. If this becomes a problem, the team will be looking to shop the UCLA alum. If he was smart, he’d keep quiet, and get Durant the rock. I think Sam Presti has seen one too many Westbrook pull up jumpers that clang off the iron. Durant, on the other hand, is playing like an MVP: 31.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists.

* The Celtics are a mess. Brandon Bass is the teams fourth best offensive player, Pierce has been hurt, Garnett looks a little slow, and Sasha Pavlovic, Marquis Daniels, Keyon Dooling, Avery Bradley, and Greg Steimsma are logging major minutes. They don’t look like they have enough this year. Rajon Rondo has been impressive thus far (18.8 points, 9 assists) but that’s about it.The Atlantic Division is a combined 5-12. Yuck.

* Lawrence Frank has now lost his last 20 games as a head coach in the NBA. Yet he remains employed. This seems foolish.

* The Atlanta Hawks are 3-0 and have outscored their opponents by more than 50 points.

* I disagree with all of the rumors that Dwight Howard doesn’t want to play for Orlando. He’s averaging 17 points, 17.5 rebounds, 3 blocks, and is getting to the line 9 times per game. Wouldn’t be totally surprised if he stays in Orlando. I remain confused at how the big man only gets 13 shots per game. He should be getting 13 shots in the flow of the offense, and then 2-3 off of offensive rebounds.

* The Los Angeles Lakers are going to be better than people think. Kobe is playing very well (28, 6, 6) and they are getting Andrew Bynum back from suspension. Josh McRoberts, Troy Murphy, Steve Blake, Metta World Peace.. that’s not an awful bench unit. If James and Durant cool off a bit, Kobe could find himself amidst MVP conversations. I just want to point out that a buddy of mine (@masonslant) claimed that Kobe was washed up and wouldn’t crack 21 ppg this year.

*Kyrie Irving has scored a lot of points, but hasn’t been efficient with the ball (37% field goal, 14$ free throw). The early front runner for ROTY has to be Brandon Knight – 14.0 points on 48% shooting and has successfully usurped Rodney Stuckey as the Pistons crunch time scorer.

* Kevin Love would have been nice to have on my fantasy team: 26 points, 15 rebounds so far. I think Ricky Rubio has been helpful to the production of Love, as well as Beasley, Derrick Williams, Anthony Randolph and company.

Well, I hope that was coherent. I am off to watch some more NBA action! Take care everyone, and happy new year!

Patriots-Broncos Retro Diary

Due to the immense hype leading up to this game, I found it fitting to do my first ever live running diary during the game. Whenever I find something noteworthy to talk about, I’ll jot it down. Hopefully my thoughts translate well on paper and aren’t an incoherent mess. Here we go!

9:30 left in first- Tebow scrambles 9 yards to pay dirt. Not a good start for Patriots defense. Extra point goes wide left. 6-0 DEN.

7:24 left in the first- Tom Brady chucks a deep bomb to… Chad Ochocinco! Even though he hasn’t been impressive this year (13 catches, 228 yards on the year), that was a nice pitch and catch. Denver cornerback absolutely fooled on that route. 7-6 Patriots.

6:40 left in first- Willis McGahee tools on the Patriots defense for a big gain. Everyone has been talking about Tim Tebow, and rightfully so, but Willis McGahee has quietly had a resurgent year. He’s on pace for over 1,000 yards.

5:01 left in first- Touchdown, Broncos. As a Patriots fan, this makes me sick. Four play drive tat included two 20+ yard runs and a completed pass by Tebow. Yuck.

5:00 left in first- McGahee being stretched out on the sideline. Did I jinx him?! I may or may not have stuck 14 needles in a McGahee voodoo doll. I’m not telling.

4:16 left in first- Killer defensive holding penalty gives Patriots unearned first down. Broncos D looking great out there, flying around and making tackles. Gulp. Brady starts 2-6. Zoltan Mesko on to punt.

50 seconds left in first- Broncos offensive line paves the way for Tebow – 19 yards on third down for Denver. That will wrap up the first quarter. Andre Carter, one of the few bright spots for the Patriots (10 sacks), is down.

Early second quarter- Patriots decline holding penalty due to advice given by Mr. Announcer. John Fox will NOT go for it on fourth and short unless he absolutely has to. Field goal by Prater is good. 16-7 DEN. On a side note, Prater has been the best kicker in the NFL since Week 9. In warm ups today he hit a 63 yarder. We may see more of him. Stay tuned.

12:35 left in second quarter- If Danny Woodhead is taller than 5’6 and weighs more than 140 pounds, I’m a Puerto Rican spell caster. The dude is diminutive. Right on que, Danny hauls in an 8 yard reception.

9:18 left in second quarter- Touchdown. Brady to Welker. Or not. The play was reviewed, Welker was touched on the one yard line. I like the “every touchdown is reviewed” rule. Makes sense. No worries for New England, though, as Brady hooks up with second year TE Aaron Hernandez for a TD. 16-14 DEN.

8:31 left in second- Lance Ball coughs up the ball and it’s recovered by Rob Ninkovich! Broncos can’t give Tommy more possessions if they plan on pulling off the upset. Touchdown! Brady to Hernandez… but wait, it’s ruled incomplete. 4th down. The instant replay shows Hernandez caught the ball but Belichick is prudent with his challenges. New England settles for a field goal. 17-16 NE.

4:32 left in second- Tebow fumbles. Patriots ball. Rut row! Oh wait, I forgot. This was supposed to happen. The Broncos are the leagues worst statistical team during second quarters.

2:00 left in second- Big fourth down conversion by Brady. Although Rob Gronkowski gets most of the love in New England, Aaron Hernandez is one of the teams best skill position players. He already has 6 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. He’s shifty in space and runs really good routes. Love the kid. Fun fact- he smoked a lot of weed in college, so that’s why he fell to the fourth round of the 2010 NFL draft. Also he was a teammate to Tebow at Florida. Meanwhile, Tom Brady QB sneaks for a touchdown and steals Gronk’s thunderous TD spike. I love it! 24-16 Patriots.

0:03 left in second quarter- Muffed punt return by Denver! New England ball! That dude for Denver should have never fielded that ball! Pats kick a field goal. 13 unanswered points off turnovers for New England. Oh, wait, I forgot. It’s almost Tebow time.

11:03 left in the third- Patriots Rookie Stevan Ridley looks good. Hard runner, decent vision, excellent balance. Bull dozes his way to a New England first down. Could be the incumbent to the Benjarvus Green-Ellis RB throne.

10:15- Quinton Carter sacks Brady at midfield. Pats will be forced to punt. Can you feel it? Tebow time is coming. It isn’t here yet, but it’s on its way. As the great Phil Collins would say, “I can feel it comin’ in the air tonight”.

Watching a really cheesy advertisement with pink, bearded elves singing and dancing. It’s a cell phone commercial. Go figure.

4:00 left in third- Yawn. #waitingfortebowtime

Start of the fourth- TEBOW TIMEEEEEEEEEE!

14:21 left in 4th- Tebow niftily evades a safety and hucks it incomplete. Broncos forced to punt.

12:00 left in the 4th- Elvis Dumervil just lifted Brady off the ground with a blindside hit. Ouch. Bronco ball.

11:12 left in 4th- Tebow completes to Thomas. He’s 8 of 13 for 106 yards thus far. Conservative, but certainly not bad.

9:30 left in 4th- TEBOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW! Two 35+ yard completions by Tebow lead to a Bronco first and goal.

9:30- Wait, did I forget to say it? TEBOWWWWWWWWWWW!

9:30- Alright, the Broncos are still down 18. But still…

8:41- QB keeper up the middle, touchdown Broncos. Tebow has 10 carries for 58 yards and two touchdown on the day. 34-23 NE. Can you feel it?

4:14 Green-Ellis trucks his way into the endzone on third and goal. Pats take a commanding 41-23 lead. That puts the game out of reach.

0:00- Game over.

Random, unorganized thoughts:

Tebow final stat line: 11-22, 194 yards, 12 carries, 93 yards, two touchdowns

Tebow had a direct hand in 287 of the teams 393 total offensive yardage. That’s 73%!

Player of the game has to be Brady- 23 completions, 320 yards, two touchdowns, one rushing touchdown.

Wow. I just pulled that off. Like it? Dislike it? Let me know in the comments section below!

The Kyrie Irving Project

11 games.

This is all we know about Kyrie Irving, the Cleveland Cavaliers rookie point guard and 2011 #1 overall draft pick.

In 11 games at Duke, under the leadership of Mike Krzyzewski, Irving averaged 17 points, 4 assists, and 3 rebounds on 53% field goal, 46% three point, and 90% free throw shooting.

From this tiny sample size, we have come to the conclusion that Irving is good with the ball in open space, finishes well around the rim, defends his position at the NBA level, and is the best player in his draft class.

It is also the consensus belief that Irving does not belong in the same conversation as ‘Rose’ or ‘Wall’. Although that might not be fair to him, it’s true- he will always be compared to his fellow #1 overall picks.

So what, exactly, are the Cleveland Cavaliers doing with Kyrie?

Do they think he’s the future of the franchise? Do they think he’s an All Star? A long term starter? A valuable trade asset? Do they think he could be Andre Miller with a more polished offensive game? Deron Williams with a less polished offensive game? Tony Parker 1.5? Do they see him with the franchise in five years? Ten years?

We all know the story of the Cavs. LeBron James was the king, bounced for South Beach, and crippled a fan base that is as passionate and loyal as any in sports. Dan Gilbert went crazy and publicly likened James as a supervillain. The Cavs lost 19 in a row at one point during the season. The ping pong balls bounced favorably. Meet Kyrie Irving. In a city that loves basketball like Cleveland does, Irving will get a chance to win over the hometown fans with his play.

The Cavaliers also drafted former Texas Longhorn forward/center Tristan Thompson. He has good hands, a strong upper body, and long arms (just ask Jay Bilas). Together, Irving and Thompson could become a pretty good tandem. It will take that, and an NBA championship, to make Cavs fans forget about LeBron.

The rest of the Cavs roster includes Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao, Ramon Sesions, Anthony Parker, Samardo Samuels, Christian Eyenga, and Mychel Thompson.

If the team hopes to compete in the Eastern Conference, it will be behind the play of Kyrie Irving.

 

The New Face of LA Basketball

As a fan of the game of basketball and, in particular, the National Basketball Association, there are a handful of things I have come to accept as truths:

• * To win an NBA title, you typically need a superstar.
• *To win an NBA title, you need a serviceable post player who can score, rebound, and protect the rim.
• *Big cities attract the best players
• * The Los Angeles Clippers suck.
• As of right now, all of those ‘truths’ remain truths- except the last one. By acquiring Chris Paul from the Hornets, the Clippers transformed themselves into title contenders! Remember the Cuttino Mobley, Tim Thomas, Corey Maggette Clippers? Exactly.

No longer are the Clippers the laughing stock of the NBA. For too long they have been the subject to jokes, poor players, and annual ass kickings by the Lakers. Not just basketball-wise, but revenue wise. People didn’t really like the Clippers. They were the little brother of the juggernaut Lakers- winners of five of the last ten NBA titles. They played in the Staples Center, sure, but it was almost like they didn’t belong there.  Let’s put it this way: Jack Nicholson didn’t sit court-side for Clipper games.

The Lakers tried to get Paul. When the Lakers want something, they generally get it. Think Chamberlain, Abdul-Jabbar, and Shaq. This time they struck out. Who was there to grab the rebound? Donald Sterling, Blake Griffin, and the Los Angeles Clippers! It’s exciting, isn’t it?

This all started two seasons ago when the Clippers drafted a 6’11 athletic freak outta Oklahoma with the first pick in the 2009 draft. Nobody knew Blake Griffin was going to turn out to be this good. He averaged 22.7 points and 14.4 rebounds in his final season in college and 22.5 and 12.1 in his first season in the NBA. He won Rookie of the Year honors in a landslide, became a youtube celebrity after the Slam Dunk Contest, and basically sent fresh blood through the pulse of Clipper Nation.

So the Clippers have a player who’s on pace to be the next Moses Malone. That’s a good start. Their next move was to do whatever it took to surround him with competence. Mo Williams was shipped into town. Eric Gordon blossomed into a fine young player. Deandre Jordan flashed signs that he could be that serviceable low block presence we talked about earlier. Next thing you know, the Clippers were a 32 win team with hope.

Enter Chris Paul.

Paul is entering his 7th season. As we can tell from the history of the league, the 7th year is usually when point guards begin to level off. That’s not to say that they decline in production, they have simply lost that extra bounce in their step. John Stockton and Isaiah Thomas both experienced this:

Stockton 6th season: 17.2 points, 14.5 assists, 2.7 steals, 51% field goal shooting

Stockton 7th season: 17.2 points, 14.2 assists, 2.9 steals, 50% field goal shooting

Thomas 6th season: 20.6 points, 10.0 assists, 1.9 steals, 46% field goal shooting

Thomas 7th season: 19.5 points, 8.4 assists, 1.7 steals, 46% field goal shooting

See? We know what we are going to get from Paul. He’s gonna give the Clippers somewhere in the ballpark of 17-18 points, 9-10 assists, a couple steals, and 49-50% field goal shooting. He is going to improve the level of play of everyone around him and, on a especially young Clippers squad, provide a veteran attitude. Remember, this isn’t the Mo Williams show anymore.

With a squad of Paul, Griffin, Jordan, Mo Williams, Caron Butler, Eric Bledsoe, Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes, Chauncey Billups, and Jamario Moon- it’s not implausible to think the Clippers could seriously contend for the 1st seed in the West. In a 66 game schedule designed for young teams with fresh legs, the Clippers are that much more dangerous.

And what do Lakers fans say? We didn’t get Paul. We probably won’t get Dwight Howard. We shipped away Lamar Odom for next to nothing. Our marquee free agent signings have been Jason Kapono and Josh McRoberts. Ladies and gentlemen, your 2011-2012 Los Angeles Lakers! The only thread of hope we cling to is the idea that the Clippers season hinges on the knees of Chris Paul (already been operated on twice) and the leadership of Vinny Del Negro.

Before I wrap this up, let’s take a peak at those “truths” I listed a the beginning of this blog and see how the Clippers stack up:

Do they have a superstar? Yes.

Do they have a post player? Yes.

Are they a big city? Yes.

The Clippers have become the hot ticket in town. The image of Blake Griffin slamming home a perfectly thrown Chris Paul lob is making me excited.

No, the Clippers don’t suck.

The Incredible Tim Tebow

Quarterbacks in the NFL are put under the spotlight unlike any other position in professional sports. The position requires thick skin, an unflappable will power, and God-given football playing abilities. The rigors of the position go much farther than being able to fire frozen ropes into tight windows and recognizing zone coverage. You must be handsome. You must be tall, fluid, and athletic. You must be able to impress a room full of shameless media members who are crossing their fingers hoping you say something note worthy. You are the face of a franchise. The nucleus of a multi-million dollar business. You are a master of public relations and of the play action pass. You have the ability to have an entire city at your fingertips (think Tom Brady) or be public enemy #1 (think Mark Sanchez).

Needless to say, not many dudes have the guts to play Quarterback in the NFL. Lot’s of guys can throw gorgeous spirals, not so many can lead the 2 minute drill on the road with 98,000 pissed off Charger fans screaming in your ear. Not many can lead their squads to three overtime victories in eight weeks. Not many can capture the hearts, or at least the attention of, every NFL fan in America.

Enter Tim Tebow.

His contractors will claim that he sucks for three quarters of every game, can’t hit the broadside of a barn, and is a product of a beastly Bronco defense.

None of this is true.

In the first quarters of games this year, Tebow completes 50% of his passes. In his ‘miraculous’ fourth quarter games, he completes at a 56% clip. So he doesn’t exactly turn into Joe Montana, but he also doesn’t “suck for three quarters”. In the first three quarters of games this year, he has thrown 5 touchdowns and no interceptions.

Claiming that Tebow is inaccurate is both true and false. Of course, he doesn’t (and likely never will) throw the ball like Aaron Rodgers does. But, to be fair to him, he’s not exactly throwing to the likes of Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordie Nelson, and JerMichael Finley. No disrespect to Daniel Fells, Erik Decker, and Demaryrius Thomas, but they aren’t quite what I’d call an elite receiving corps. In his latest outing, a win over the Bears, Tebow’s targets dropped six passes. Those count as incompletions, too.

Although the Broncos defense has been terrific (holding opponents to under 20 points in five games since Tebow took the helm), it does nothing to detract from #15’s greatness. If the Patriots were holding teams to 15 points per, do you think Brady would be throwing the ball 35 times a game? Of course not! Willis McGahee is on pace for almost 300 carries this year. The Broncos like to squeeze the air out of the ball by letting Tebow and McGahee run roughshod on teams. Why not play to your strengths? The Broncos strengths are: offensive line, physical backs, defense. It would silly to say “Hey, Timmy, go out-gun Philip Rivers!” John Fox knows better.

We haven’t even discussed Tebow’s biggest asset as a football player. He is a terrific running back! 94 carries for 517 yards (5.5 YPC) and 3 scores so far. He’s a beast. Hard to tackle a 6’3, 235 pound bowling ball with good moves and good speed. He’s a white Clinton Portis. If he completes 15 passes for 15o yards and rushes twelve times for 50 yards, that’s the same as a normal QB throwing for 200 yards, right? He’s a multi talented threat that the Broncos are taking advantage of.

Tebow has captivated the football viewing community. We don’t like when conventional wisdom is trumped by ingenuity. It’s taboo. For as long as we can remember, quarterbacks have been tall, right handed, and classic football guys. They wore wrangler jeans and letterman jackets. They were the popular guys at school dances. Tebow isn’t the same. He was home schooled. He’s religious. He’s ultra competitive. He’s lefty. He doesn’t throw the ball as well as some would like. He prefers to stiff arm opponents rather than slide to safety. He plays in the shadow of John Elway and is shining brighter than Elway ever could.

Many people put the blame on Tebow’s religion. It is well documented that Tebow is a man of faith and high moral esteem. This rubs many people the wrong way. Do these nay sayers believe that Tebow is being led to victory by God? Do they believe that Tebow thinks this? Either way, Tebow is a positive influence on a locker room that, during the Orton era, desperatley needed a voice of reason. Tebow leads the team in prayer sessions. Are their prayers heard? Maybe. Maybe not. Is Tebow’s insistence upon eternal optimism a drink that we should all drink?

Absolutely.

Down 10-0 with two minutes left against the Bears, Tebow throws a touchdown pass, and (thanks to a defensive stop) marches downfield for the game tying field goal. The man has done it again. He certainly has a knack for crunch time, but he also has a knack for something else.

Winning. Can’t argue with results. I believe in Tebowmania. Now excuse me while I put away this Tebowner.

Predictions

Good mornin’, folks!

After some breakfast, two re-runs of Sportscenter, and a hot shower, I found myself in a predicament.

What am I going to do for the rest of the day?

I decided that I would reach into my inner gypsy (c’mon, we all have inner gypsies) and make a few predictions prevalent to the sports world! So, if you could, follow along for the first ever GraySportsGuy predictions blog!

The Heisman

Doesn’t this just feel like Andrew Luck’s award to lose? I mean, I think Robert Griffin III had a brilliant year, but I think he hit the national scene a little too late. Montee Ball had a historically good knack for finding pay dirt, but I don’t think he’s got the resume to match that of Trent Richardson: the ‘Bama back who rushed for 100+ yards in 9 games this year. I’m not a huge fan of running backs winning the Heisman. The offensive line is 80% of a teams run game. The difference between a B+ running back and an A- one? The big dudes on the line of scrimmage. Reggie Bush or Mark Ingram, anyone? And, bless his heart, the speedy Tyrann Mathieu can’t win the award simply because he plays cornerback. My pick? Andrew Luck.

Where Chris Paul will land

So, the NBA squashed the first attempt to send Chris Paul to Hollywood. As a diehard Lakers fan, it felt like waking up from a pleasant dream (CP3 +  Kobe) but realizing that I had wet the bed. We all know what happened next- the media began to personify David Stern as the Devil’s reincarnation and everybody and their brother sang the same tune: “That’s not fair! How can David Stern do that?!” The irony? I can’t picture a scenario in which New Orleans gets a better deal than Odom, Scola, Martin, Dragic, and a first round pick. Whatever. Rumor has it that Houston, Los Angeles, and New Orleans are persisting and trying to get a deal done. I believe they can do it. Too much pressure on Stern.

Where Dwight Howard will land

Don’t you love randomly speculating on where players could or could not go? It’s like playing pin the tail on the donkey in the dark. Nobody knows if you are close or not. That being said, I’m gonna give it a try! I don’t see Dwight Howard in a Nets uniform (BUT how cool would it be next year with Deron Williams throwing lobs to D12 with ‘Brooklyn’ on their chests?) If Howard doesn’t stay, I think he will make his way to the Los Angeles Lakers. Hooray for Superteams!

Who will be the 2011-2012 Fantasy Basketball MVP? 

LeBron James. Just watch. He’s due for a berserk year. In a recent interview for ESPN, James said he was tired of being the villain and wanted to start playing for fun again. LeBron was a two time NBA scoring leader and MVP ‘having fun’ in Cleveland. Expect more of the same this year. Don’t be surprised if he drops 30-8-8. I’m not kidding.

Will Kentucky finish the season ranked #1? 

No. If you follow college basketball, you understand that its a tall task to go a whole season at #1. The task becomes even steeper if you start three freshmen and two sophomores. I think the Wildcats will drop a couple of games and make way for Ohio State to claim the #1 spot. Soon.

Who will be rookie of the year in 2011-2012? 

Derrick Williams will post 15-8 for the Minnesota Timberwolves in a Kevin Garnett-ish role. Knock down some jumpers. Make a couple athletic plays. Grab some boards. Learn on the fly. I think Irving will play well in Cleveland, but not quite as well as the former Arizona Wildcat. Also look for Jimmer Fredette to earn some votes. I’m kidding, I think.

Will the Packers go undefeated? 

Yes. Their best chance to lose was last week against the Giants. I don’t think they will have any further hiccups this year. Of course, as a diehard Patriots fan, I am going to poke countless needles into an Aaron Rodgers voodoo doll between now and Christmas, but that’s just me. If Rodgers goes down with a mysterious back injury, I’ll probably lay low for awhile.

Well, that’s it for my predictions! Did you like it? Dislike it? Leave a comment below! As always,

peace out!